By Evie Liu

Vaccines are a hot potato in Washington these days, but the Trump administration is squarely behind ones that would prevent avian influenza.

The illness, which infects chickens and many other birds, has pushed egg prices through the roof in the past few months.

Vaccinating flocks, however, could hurt the poultry industry on the global market. It's a balance acting for the president and Agriculture Secretary Brook Rollins.

Egg prices have soared as avian flu has broken out across hundreds of farms across the country. Farms not only lose the infected chickens, but must cull entire flocks when a case is identified to prevent the spread.

Consequently, the supply of both chickens and eggs has been sharply reduced. The size of the layer flock, which supplies the eggs that Americans eat, is now at its lowest level in at least a decade, said Pooran Sharma, commodity analyst at Stephens.

Instead of killing off an entire flock when the virus is detected, "what we need to do is have better ways with biosecurity and medication and so on," Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told CBS.

The administration, he said, is working with "the best scientists in government" and plans to give more details this week.

Still, there is debate in both government and scientific circles about whether a poultry vaccine is the best approach.

First, a vaccine often isn't effective against all strains of the virus, which can mutate rapidly.

For example, animal-health company Zoetis received conditional approval last week from the Agriculture Department for its avian-flu vaccine. But the vaccine targets the H5N2 subtype, not the current circulating strain of H5N1.

"The decision to vaccinate commercial poultry flocks rests solely with national regulatory authorities in consultation with their local poultry sector," Zoetis said in a statement.

Logistics would make it pricey to vaccinate the millions of chickens nationwide, and it's unclear who would cover the cost -- the government or chicken farmers.

Even when chickens are vaccinated, they can still carry the virus without symptoms, which makes it more difficult to detect outbreaks and prevent the spread.

That very reason is why many countries simply won't import poultry products from nations that vaccinate flocks against bird flu. For American chicken farmers, their export markets would collapse.

Lawmakers are keenly aware of the trade fallout for farmers. In a letter sent last week, the Congressional and Senate Chicken Caucuses has asked the Agriculture Department to protect chicken exports if vaccination is of the government's strategy to combat bird flu.

"A widescale HPAI vaccination program in the U.S., without first strengthening our animal health trade agreements, could cause our trading partners to take action that would significantly harm our domestic poultry sector," the letter reads.

More than three-quarters of the affected birds have been commercial egg-laying hens, but turkey and broiler producers could be hurt by vaccination policies as well.

"Vaccination in any poultry sector...will jeopardize the entire export market for all U.S. poultry products," according to the letter.

The potential annual loss to the economy could be more than $10 billion, the lawmakers said. About 16% of the nation's chicken meat production, valued at more than $5 billion a year, is exported to foreign markets.

Even if all the concerns are eased -- over exports, cost, and effectiveness -- and America's flocks are vaccinated, egg prices won't drop overnight.

After a new layer hen is hatched, the bird doesn't start laying eggs until it is about six months old, said Sharma, the commodity analyst.

The number and quality of the eggs will be low in the beginning, but gradually improve and reach their peak in a few weeks. It generally takes nine to 12 months for an egg production farm to get back up and running after getting hit with bird flu, he said.

For shoppers, the upshot is this: Eggspect to keep forking over big bucks for that dozen.

Write to Evie Liu at evie.liu@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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February 20, 2025 03:00 ET (08:00 GMT)

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