【纯碱全年需求难有增量】金十期货2月20日讯，1. 供应端，纯碱扩产周期将延续至2025年，江苏德邦、连云港碱业新增产能延迟至今年投放，湖北双环、应城新都新增产能计划今年下半年投放，远兴能源二期产能计划今年年底投放。所有新增产能投放后，纯碱产能将增至4490万吨，同比增长12.5%。2. 库存方面，纯碱中上游库存处于近年同期高位。数据显示，上周纯碱厂库继续累积，环比增加3.37万吨，其中轻碱库存增幅较大。西北地区、西南地区和华北地区库存压力大。上述地区的厂家下调价格，加快出货，减轻库存压力。中游库存较高，维持缓慢出货节奏。社会库存持续增加。3. 整体来看，市场对后期装置检修及停产仍有担忧，中下游有低价采购意愿。目前，中上游库存压力较大，实际供应减量有待观察，低成本企业也没有增加检修的意愿。弱需求叠加高库存短期拖累现货价格。纯碱供应灵活，价格在低位有支撑，但基本面弱势及库存压力导致价格上方空间有限，目前期货估值偏高，可逢高做空。
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