Cameco Corporation CCJ is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 20, before the opening bell.

Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCJ’s earnings for the fourth quarter is pegged at 23 cents per share, which indicates a 53% improvement from the prior-year quarter’s figure. Over the past 60 days, the estimate has moved up 28%.

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The consensus estimate for Cameco’s revenues is $744 million, indicating 20% growth from the year-ago quarter's actual.

Cameco’s Earnings Surprise History

Cameco’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. CCJ has an average trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 66.60%. The trend is shown in the chart below.

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What the Zacks Model Unveils for Cameco Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CCJ this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here as elaborated below.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Cameco is 9.29%.

Zacks Rank: CCJ currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped CCJ’s Q4 Performance

CCJ has a 69.8% stake in the McArthur River mine and 83% interest in the Key Lake mill, the world's largest high-grade uranium mine and mill. Cameco owns a 54.5% interest in Cigar Lake, which is the world’s highest-grade uranium mine.

Cameco’s expected share from these mines is 23.1 million pounds in 2024 compared with 17.6 million pounds in 2023. During the first nine-month period of 2024, the company’s share of production totaled 17.3 million pounds, implying a fourth-quarter production target of 5.8 million. This is slightly above the production volume of 5.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. 

CCJ had stated plans to sell 32-34 million pounds of uranium in 2024. Having sold 20.8 million pounds in the first nine-month period of 2024, Cameco had to sell 11.2-13.2 million pounds of uranium in the fourth quarter of 2024 to meet the target. This indicates a rise from the 9.8 million pounds sold in the fourth quarter of 2023. Its uranium revenues are expected to have benefited from higher sales volume, offset by lower uranium prices. Notably, uranium spot prices averaged around $76.75 per pound for the fourth quarter, 7% lower year over year.

Cameco also owns a 40% stake in the Inkai mine, which has been facing procurement and supply-chain issues, mainly related to sulfuric acid deliveries. Transportation challenges, construction delays and inflationary production costs are other headwinds. Cameco had lowered the production outlook for Inkai by 0.6 million to 7.7 million pounds (on a 100% basis) of uranium. 

At Port Hope, annual UF6 (uranium hexafluoride) production was projected between 11,000 and 11,500 tons in 2024. This is lower than the previous expectation of 12,000 tons due to temporary operational issues in the first half of 2024. 

Fuel services (which include UF6 conversion, UO2 and heavy water reactor fuel bundles) production for 2024 is expected to be in the band of 13.5-14.5 million kgU, indicating a rise from 13.3 million kgU reported in 2023. Sales deliveries are expected to reach 12-13 million kgU in 2024, whereas the metric was 12 million kgU in 2023. This implies fourth-quarter production at 3.6-4.6 million kgU and sales at 4.1-5.1 million kgU. In the fourth quarter of 2023, production was 3.7 million kgU and sales volumes were 4.2 million kgU. 

These anticipated improvements in production and sales for fuel services are likely to have positively influenced CCJ’s fourth-quarter performance. 

Meanwhile, the average unit cost of production at McArthur River/Key Lake is expected to have been higher in the quarter due to the production ramp-up.  The average unit cost of sales in the fuel services segment is likely to have been elevated than the prior-year quarter’s actual due to the lower production expectations at the Port Hope conversion facility. CCJ will continue to incur care and maintenance costs for the ongoing curtailment of its tier-two assets, which are expected between $50 million and $60 million.

Cameco has been progressing to lower administration, exploration and operating costs as well as capital expenditure. This is likely to have helped offset the impacts of elevated costs on CCJ’s earnings.

In November 2023, CCJ acquired a 49% interest in Westinghouse Electric Company. Due to normal variability in the timing of its customer requirements, and delivery and outage schedules, the Westinghouse segment is expected to have delivered a stronger performance in the fourth quarter of 2024. CCJ’s share of adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse is expected between $460 million and $530 million in 2024.  Of this, $227 million of EBITDA was realized in the first nine months of 2024 and $140-$210 million remains to be realized in the fourth quarter of 2024. 

CCJ’s Price Performance 

Shares of Cameco have gained 11.9% in a year against the industry’s 8.6% decline.

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Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space, which according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Osisko Gold Royalties OR, expected to release its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings soon, has an Earnings ESP of +7.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Osisko Gold’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 16 cents per share, indicating 33% year-over-year growth. OR has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 6.63%.

Newmont NEM, ready to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 20, currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 95 cents per share, indicating a 90% surge from the year-ago quarter. Newmont has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 22.16%.

CF Industries CF, scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb. 19, has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF Industries’ fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.49 per share, indicating in-line results with last year's quarter. CF has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 10.25%.

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