金吾财讯 | 信达证券发研报指，粉笔(02469)发布业绩预告，24年，公司预计实现收入不少于27.7亿元、同比减少不高于8.3%，实现净利润不少于2.25亿元、同比增长不低于19.3%，实现经调整净利润不少于3.5亿元、同比减少不高于21.4%。该行表示，我国招录考试培训行业竞争加剧，中小机构丛生，并以低价吸引学生，对头部机构的招生形成分流。因此，公司24年收入和经调整净利润同比下滑。该行估计，由于公司线上收入的下滑影响利润率，经调整净利润的下滑幅度大于收入下滑幅度。该行认为，行业竞争加剧，导致公司业绩承压，未来随着中小机构逐步出清，竞争格局有望逐步改善。公司率先推出行测、申论、面试的AI产品，体现了强大的研发实力，以及多年在线数据沉淀的意义，虽然短期对业绩的贡献较小，但却有望成为改变行业生态的一大步。调整2024~26年经调整净利润至3.61/3.72/4.12亿元，当前股价对应估值为18x/17x/16x，考虑到市场对于AI应用的关注，维持“买入”评级。
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