金吾财讯 | 国泰君安维持对黄金的战术性超配观点。特朗普政府的政策缺乏可预测性，对内与对外政策激进转向、反复无常，推高全球地缘政治避险情绪。美国联邦债务规模近期已触及债务上限，美国财政部采取非常措施以避免债务违约，但在正式解决方案出台前，市场针对美元信用的博弈仍较为激烈。近期俄美关系边际升温削弱了市场对于地缘政治危机的担忧，特朗普关税政策的后延亦缓解了此前黄金现货市场的流动性紧张问题。考虑到特朗普政府的政策变化不定以及美国国内内部政治斗争白热化，市场对于地缘政治以及关税政策的预期波动或仍偏高，黄金短期的风险回报比虽然有所降低，但仍高于其他主要大类资产。
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