Super Micro's Stock Skyrockets 73.5%--Can It Sustain Its AI-Driven Growth?

GuruFocus.com
19 Feb

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) is on fire. The stock soared 13.3% at 11.41pm on Tuesday, extending its year-to-date gain to a staggering 73.5%, making it the best-performing name in the S&P 500. What's fueling the rally? A bold fiscal 2026 revenue target of $40 billionfar above Wall Street's expectationsand growing anticipation for Nvidia's Blackwell GPU, which plays a critical role in Super Micro's AI server business. With investor sentiment shifting back in its favor, the stock's meteoric rise signals a resurgence of the AI trade.

  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with SMCI.

But there's still an elephant in the room. Super Micro has yet to file key financial reports, a delay that previously sent shares plunging more than 80% from their peak. That overhang may soon be lifted, as management has committed to filing by February 25 to avoid a potential Nasdaq delisting. Analysts at JPMorgan acknowledge the company's upbeat guidance but remain cautious, suggesting the outlook might be too aggressive given current supply constraints. Still, Super Micro's CEO Charles Liang is confident: if supply chains hold up, he believes 2025 could be a repeator even betterthan the explosive growth of 2023.

With SMCI's gains now rivaling Palantir's, the stock is quickly becoming one of the market's biggest AI-driven success stories. If the company follows through on its ambitious revenue projections and successfully clears its accounting hurdles, the upside could be massive. But in a market that's seen its fair share of hype-fueled AI bets, execution will be everything. Investors are watching closelythis story is far from over.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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