Shareholders of Cogstate Limited (ASX:CGS) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 19% to AU$1.40 following its latest half-yearly results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$0.031 per share roughly in line with what the analyst had forecast. Revenues of US$23m came in 9.5% ahead of analyst predictions. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimate suggests is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Cogstate

Taking into account the latest results, Cogstate's sole analyst currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$47.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 7.9% to US$0.039 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$45.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.028 in 2025. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analyst upgrading revenues and making a very substantial lift in earnings per share in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analyst has not made any major changes to their price target of AU$1.50, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Cogstate's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Cogstate is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analyst upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Cogstate following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for Cogstate going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.