The latest Market Talks covering the Auto and Transport sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1547 GMT - Rivian analysts don't seem as concerned as the rest of the market about the conservative EV deliveries guidance that the carmaker issued Thursday after its 4Q report. The company's 4Q results easily topped expectations and show Rivian achieving its goal of a positive gross profit as vehicle costs come down, Stifel analysts say in a research note. That offsets some negatives, including seasonality, a challenging demand environment and the L.A. fires, that have it guiding for fewer deliveries in 1Q than expected, the analysts say. "Overall, we view the print and outlook as about neutral for the shares near-term," they say, maintaining a buy rating. Analysts from Wedbush and Benchmark are also maintaining bullish ratings on the stock. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1540 GMT - Rivian is on track for long-term growth, but it faces political uncertainty over the regulatory environment for EVs, Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg says in a research note. The Republican administration in power could repeal EV tax credits and other incentives, which would delay growth in the EV sector, the analyst says. Donald Trump has signed an executive order instructing agencies to stop distributing funds allocated for EV development and cancelling his predecessor's goal for 50% of new vehicle sales by 2030 to be EVs. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1344 GMT - Chorus Aviation's Voyageur business is showing promising growth, and TD Cowen's Tim James thinks this should help the stock take off. In a report, the analyst says Chorus' specialized aviation services segment is gaining momentum, and should reach its 2025 revenue target of C$150 million "driven by part sales, contract wins and expansion of its existing contracts in the defence surveillance verticals." TD Cowen upgrades the stock to buy from hold and raises the target price to C$27 from C$25. Shares are currently about 12% lower year-to-date at C$19.26. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1203 GMT - DHL-owner Deutsche Post needs to report a big step up in fourth quarter earnings to hit management's full-year guidance, Deutsche Bank's Andy Chu writes. The bank expects fourth quarter EBIT of 1.7 billion euros, which implies full-year EBIT of 5.73 billion euros. That would be below full-year EBIT guidance of over 5.8 billion euros and consensus at 5.81 billion euros. Guidance has been too bullish and disappointed investors for over a year, so the bank hopes to see more conservative 2025 EBIT guidance of 6 billion euros. The consensus for 2025 EBIT stands at 6.3 billion euros. Deutsche Bank expects the German mail and logistics company to walk away from its rolling 3-year guidance. Shares trade 1.6% higher at 37.13 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

1202 GMT - Fincantieri could report solid results for 2024 and its fourth quarter on March 24, BNP Paribas analyst Giuseppe Grimaldi says. The Italian shipbuilder is expected to report double-digit growth in sales in the fourth quarter and a 39% increase in Ebitda, he says, noting that all of the group's business lines are performing better. That includes cruises, which had weakened during the Covid-19 pandemic. Fincantieri's shares have risen over 20% year-to-date, almost catching up with other EU defense peers, Grimaldi says. BNP Paribas reiterates its neutral rating but increases its target price on the stock to 10 euros from 6.1 euros. This is Fincantieri's third target price upgrade in a week, following those by Intesa Sanpaolo on Feb. 19 and Equita on Feb. 14. Shares are up 2% at 8.9 euros. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)

1058 GMT - If European carbon dioxide targets are eased, there should be some upside to Renault's guidance, but the company's share of EVs would probably still increase which would dilute margins, Deutsche Bank analyst Christoph Laskawi writes. Renault's results were ahead of expectations on the top line and cash but were a touch shy on margins. Looking ahead, the company factors in about one percentage point margin headwind for reaching carbon dioxide compliance in Europe. Renault is one of the most exposed names to European carbon dioxide regulation, so any communication on this matter in early March could be a catalyst. Deutsche Bank raises its target price to 60 euros from 55 euros and keeps its hold rating. Shares fall 0.1% to 49.10 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

1025 GMT - Renault's new car launches hold the key to support earnings as it looks to drive competitiveness through enhanced content, HSBC analysts write. The company's EBIT margin guidance reflects carbon dioxide target compliance-related risks, so there is possible upside if the EU relaxes rules, they say. Renault has no direct China or U.S. exposure, but HSBC thinks that risk avoidance potential is already in the price. Given the potential of Renault's model launch/refresh activity, it should be resilient on pricing, with this pricing potential underestimated by the market, as is the cost efficiency potential. HSBC trims its target price to 59 euros from 60 euros and keeps a buy rating. Shares trade 0.3% higher at 49.26 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0944 GMT - Renault is on a solid base and now needs to find a way to maintain EPS growth and cash returns, Citi analysts Harald C Hendrikse and Soumava Banerjee write. Renault's "Renaulution" transformation plan has been largely well executed, they say. The company has cut costs, cut losses and improved EBIT margins, and turned 3 billion net debt to over 7 billion net cash. Executing on the basics of sales discipline, attractive consumer products and low costs has worked well. "With over 20 euros per share in cash, over 20 euros per share in Mobilize equity, and around 12 euros per share in Nissan value, investors still pay zero for the core franchise," they say. Shares rise 0.7% to 49.46 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0548 GMT - China's electric-vehicle sector could see consolidation accelerating as more autonomous driving features are adopted in mass market cars, HSBC Global Research analysts write in a note. BYD's aggressive autonomous driving push makes higher level autonomy functions more accessible for its mass market models with price tags below CNY100,000, they add. Other Chinese automakers are likely to follow BYD's autonomous driving adoption, they say. The availability of higher-level autonomy in mass market and budget models could raise the bar in EV competition, and boost consolidation in the industry, they add. The companies with stronger AD features and higher in-house software capabilities are likely to better expand its market share, HSBC says.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0444 GMT - Grab is well positioned for growth supported by a strong balance sheet, says Deutsche Bank research team. Grab's 4Q earnings showed continued user growth, and a new high in adjusted Ebitda, making the market's reaction to the result surprising as the stock fell 11% in the after-market hours, the DB team says. DB keeps a buy rating and lifts Grab's ADR target to $7.00 from $6.00, to factor in a possible merger with Indonesian rival GoTo. There's a lot of rationale for a merger with GoTo as the combined company will likely earn 40%-50% more, they add. A merger would also lead to deeper penetration of Indonesia, they add. Grab shares last closed at $4.79. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0024 GMT - Air New Zealand's 1H result was better than expected by Forsyth Barr and was accompanied by a NZ$100 million share buyback, but still came with enough baggage to keep the bank at neutral for now. Air New Zealand signaled its engine maintenance challenges have worsened. It now expects to have up to 11 planes at any time grounded for maintenance in 2H, up from eight in 1H. "Air New Zealand is at least two years away from a normalized engine maintenance schedule, which leaves investors in limbo as to what is an appropriate and sustainable (as is possible for an airline) level of profitability to use for relative valuation means," analyst Andy Bowley says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2204 GMT - A U.S. bankruptcy court approved Spirit Airlines' restructuring plan, which will wipe out shareholders and turn the budget airline to its bondholders. Spirit had rebuffed acquisition offers from rival budget carrier Frontier Airlines in favor of pursuing its standalone plan. Spirit said it expects to emerge from chapter 11 in the coming weeks. As part of the agreement, bondholders will swap nearly $800 million of their holdings into equity into the reorganized airline and Spirit will receive $350 million of new equity investment. "We will emerge as a stronger airline with the financial flexibility to continue providing Guests with enhanced travel experiences and greater value," CEO Ted Christie said. (alison.sider@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 21, 2025 12:20 ET (17:20 GMT)

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