Alamos Gold Inc (AGI) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Production Growth ...

GuruFocus.com
21 Feb
  • Revenue: Fourth quarter revenue of $376 million; full year revenue of over $1.3 billion, up 32% from 2023.
  • Gold Sales: Sold 141,000 ounces in Q4 at an average price of $2,632 per ounce; full year sales of 560,000 ounces at $2,379 per ounce.
  • Production: 567,000 ounces produced in 2024, a 7% increase; projected growth to 605,000 ounces in 2025.
  • Free Cash Flow: Record free cash flow of $272 million for the full year.
  • Cash Position: Ended 2024 with $327 million in cash, a 46% increase from 2023.
  • Total Cash Costs: $981 per ounce in Q4; $927 per ounce for the full year.
  • All-in Sustaining Costs: $1,333 per ounce in Q4; $1,281 per ounce for the full year.
  • Operating Cash Flow: $208 million in Q4; $726 million for the full year, up 40%.
  • Adjusted Net Earnings: $103 million in Q4; $329 million for the full year.
  • Capital Expenditures: $144 million in Q4; $428 million for the full year.
  • Global Reserves: Increased 31% to 14 million ounces of gold.
  • Island Gold Production: 155,000 ounces for the year, a record high.
  • Young Davidson Free Cash Flow: Record $141 million for the year.
  • Mulatos District Free Cash Flow: Record $240 million for the year.
  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Sign with IIPR.

Release Date: February 20, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

  • Alamos Gold Inc (NYSE:AGI) achieved record operational and financial performance in 2024, including record revenue, cash flow from operations, and free cash flow.
  • The company reported a 7% increase in production to 567,000 ounces, meeting full-year guidance.
  • Alamos Gold Inc (NYSE:AGI) has a strong financial position with $327 million in cash and total liquidity of over $800 million.
  • The company outlined a 24% production growth over the next three years, with all-in sustaining costs expected to decrease by 8%.
  • Alamos Gold Inc (NYSE:AGI) achieved a 31% increase in global reserves to 14 million ounces, marking the sixth consecutive year of growth.

Negative Points

  • The Young Davidson mine experienced lower grades than guided in 2024 due to a variance in the sequence of the soaps being mined.
  • Inflationary pressures are impacting costs, with a 5% increase in costs year-over-year at the Young Davidson mine.
  • The Mino mine experienced downtime due to longer-than-anticipated replacement of the primary crusher.
  • The company expects to start paying significant cash taxes in Canada by 2027, following the deferral of cash taxes due to acquired tax pools.
  • Alamos Gold Inc (NYSE:AGI) is not planning to increase its dividend in the near future, as the focus remains on funding growth initiatives.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Can you provide an estimate of how much of the $515 million synergies from the Island Gold and Mino combination have been realized so far, and how much do you expect to realize in the next year? A: (Gregory Fisher, CFO) We realized about $100 million of capital synergies in 2024 and 2025, mainly from not expanding the Island mill and not completing the tailings lift. The remaining synergies will be realized over the life of the mine, primarily through operating synergies, starting in 2026 when we move to the Mino mill and grid power, with about $25 million per year expected.

Q: Regarding tax synergies, how far can the acquired tax pools defer cash taxes given current gold prices? A: (Gregory Fisher, CFO) The deferral at current gold prices is about two years. We would have been cash taxable starting in 2025, but with the acquisition and use of the pools at Mino, we can defer significant cash taxes until around 2027.

Q: The grade at Young Davidson was lower than guided in 2024. Can you comment on this and the outlook for 2025? A: (Luc Guimond, COO) The variance was due to a slight change in the sequence of the stopes mined. We expect to be within the guidance range of 205,000 to 225,000 ounces for 2025, with higher grades anticipated in 2026 and 2027.

Q: There seems to be inflationary pressure at Young Davidson. What are the cost drivers, and are there risks for other Canadian operations? A: (Gregory Fisher, CFO) The increase is driven by inflation (about 5%), lower grades due to sequencing, and timing of sustaining capital. Inflation is the main factor applicable to other Canadian operations, included in our guidance at 4-5%.

Q: Is the climate in Mexico improving for mining investments, and would Alamos consider further investments there? A: (John McCluskey, CEO) We see a positive change in Mexico, with permits flowing more smoothly. While we are focused on the Mulatos district, we are cautiously optimistic about future opportunities in Mexico, pending clear policy messages from the government.

Q: Given the company's performance and outlook, will there be a reconsideration of the cash dividend policy? A: (John McCluskey, CEO) Our focus is on executing our aggressive growth plan, which includes major expansion projects. We are not considering increasing the dividend at this time, as our priority is funding and executing our growth initiatives.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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