Investors in Penumbra, Inc. (NYSE:PEN) had a good week, as its shares rose 8.6% to close at US$292 following the release of its yearly results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$1.2b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 15% to hit US$0.36 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Penumbra

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Penumbra's 18 analysts is for revenues of US$1.35b in 2025. This reflects a solid 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 896% to US$3.62. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.36b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.76 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 16% to US$310, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Penumbra at US$340 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$260. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Penumbra's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 13% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.9% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Penumbra is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Penumbra analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Penumbra that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.