金吾财讯 | 交银国际发研报指，预计龙源电力(00916)2024全年盈利约为61亿元，同比微跌1%。主要原因是风电2024年发电量同比下跌1%，同时公司出售火电项目股权在3季度完成，减少了下半年火电业务的盈利。该行认为目前投资者较关心交易电价及项目利用率的稳定程度，该行认为国家对上网电量及电价改革的通知文件，已提供较稳定的电价交易范围，目前有待实际执行。利用率方面，该行认为变数仍在今年风速是否较去年有所回升。公司自身的因素方面，以大代小的进度在今年应该较去年加快，该行认为相关减值的影响可能回到2023年约20亿元的水平。另外，该行关注公司会否因上网电量及电价的新政而在今年6月1日之前加快装机进度，该行认为适逢公司决定剥离火电业务，加快新能源装机亦对公司盈利结构起稳定作用。该行估计公司2025年盈利将同比温和增长4.8%，同时维持公司10.5倍2025年市盈率的估值标准，因每股盈利预测下调及汇率变动，目标价调整至8.0港元，维持买入评级。
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