Shareholders might have noticed that Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE:VMC) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.0% to US$259 in the past week. Vulcan Materials reported US$7.4b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.85 beat expectations, being 3.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Vulcan Materials

Following the latest results, Vulcan Materials' 21 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$8.13b in 2025. This would be a decent 9.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 20% to US$8.38. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.92 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$300, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Vulcan Materials, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$349 and the most bearish at US$173 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Vulcan Materials'historical trends, as the 9.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 12% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.4% annually. So although Vulcan Materials is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vulcan Materials. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Vulcan Materials going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Vulcan Materials that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.