Freezing wells cut US output in recent days
US gas output on track for possible record high in February
US LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February
By Scott DiSavino
Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday as extreme cold over the past couple of weeks cut output by freezing wells and as gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants hit record highs.
In addition, traders noted that the cold weather forced utilities to pull huge amounts of gas out of storage, cutting stockpiles down to about 11% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal for this time of year EIA/GAS {NGAS/POLL]
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were up 2.4 cents, or 0.6%, to $4.176 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:34 a.m. EST (1334 GMT).
That kept the contract in technically overbought territory for a fourth day in a row for the first time since October 2024. The front-month closed at a 25-month high of $4.28 per mmBtu on February 19.
Total gas futures volume NG-TOT traded on the NYMEX, meanwhile, jumped to 1.194 million contracts on February 19, the most since hitting an all-time high of 1.603 million in November 2018 and the third highest on record.
For the week, the contract was up about 13%, rising for a third week in a row for the first time since November and gaining around 38% during that time.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 104.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January, when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.
But with the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 6.7 bcfd since hitting a record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a preliminary four-week low of 100.0 bcfd on Friday. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through March 8.
With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 148.4 bcfd this week to 127.9 bcfd next week and 122.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hit a record 16.5 bcfd on Thursday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 16.4 bcfd on Wednesday.
The LNG daily feedgas record occurred as flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana were on track to hit record highs of 1.6 bcfd from Wednesday to Friday.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at around $15 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Feb 21 Forecast | Week ended Feb 14 Actual | Year ago Feb 21 | Five-year average Feb 21 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -248 | -196 | -86 | -141 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,853 | 2,101 | 2,401 | 2,078 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -10.8% | -5.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 4.25 | 4.15 | 1.80 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 14.62 | 14.65 | 8.12 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 14.25 | 14.12 | 8.93 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 356 | 376 | 301 | 358 | 354 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 362 | 382 | 309 | 366 | 363 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 105.3 | 102.9 | 101.7 | 104.8 | 95.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.6 | 114.1 | 110.3 | N/A | 104.0 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | N/A | 5.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 14.2 | 14.4 | 14.9 | 13.6 | 11.3 |
U.S. Commercial | 17.7 | 20.7 | 15.4 | 14.2 | 15.9 |
U.S. Residential | 29.8 | 35.4 | 24.9 | 22.9 | 26.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 33.6 | 34.0 | 31.2 | 33.2 | 30.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 25.9 | 27.0 | 25.2 | 24.7 | 25.1 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 115.4 | 125.6 | 104.7 | 103.4 | 106.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 138.8 | 148.4 | 127.9 | N/A | 125.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 86 | 86 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 84 | 84 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 85 | 85 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Feb 21 | Week ended Feb 14 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 22 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 5.62 | 7.15 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 6.07 | 11.11 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.90 | 4.25 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 6.59 | 8.05 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 6.14 | 7.75 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 16.05 | 18.50 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 4.47 | 4.60 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 4.30 | 4.32 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.37 | 1.41 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 142.20 | 166.76 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 75.40 | 109.91 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 46.29 | 51.25 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 24.38 | 37.30 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 21.95 | 29.83 |
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.