Dutch Bros (BROS -3.48%) stock is on fire in 2025, already up 63% since the year started as I write this. It has reported several quarters of solid, profitable growth, and it has an enormous future opportunity.
There's a lot of reason for excitement, and the market is expecting big things for this small coffee shop chain. Can the stock keep rising? Keep your eye on one metric that tells a lot of the story.
Many kinds of companies, including retailers and restaurant chains, chart progress in comparable-store or same-store sales growth, also called comps. The measurement could look slightly different depending on the company; for example, one might include stores open for 12 months, while others could include stores open for 15 months.
But it's an important metric for investors to chart and often looked at more closely than total sales growth. It gives a deeper picture about what's going on because it excludes the impact of new stores.
Comps growth means that customers are coming in more frequently (or more customers are coming in) and/or buying higher-priced items, both of which are positive, and companies often give a breakdown between the two. It also implies that the company's concept is resonating with its target audience and therefore set for future success. Finally, comps growth boosts profitability, since fixed store costs are spread out over a larger sales base.
Dutch Bros has reported fabulous sales growth over the past few years, but its comps growth hasn't been as consistent. Here's how it went in 2024:
| Metric | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales growth | 39% | 30% | 28% | 35% |
| Comps growth | 10% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 6.9% |
Data source: Dutch Bros quarterly reports. Year-over-year figures.
Investors appreciated the strong showing in the fourth quarter. Along with the accelerating revenue growth and increasing profitability, there was little to find fault with in the report.
It could be that as inflation moderates and customers begin to spend more, Dutch Bros will keep up the healthy growth. But it's been up and down before, and investors should pay attention to where that growth -- especially comps growth -- goes from here.
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