The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (NYSE:FIS), since the last five years saw the share price fall 50%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 17% in the last three months. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
Check out our latest analysis for Fidelity National Information Services
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
While the share price declined over five years, Fidelity National Information Services actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 17% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.
Arguably, the revenue drop of 5.3% a year for half a decade suggests that the company can't grow in the long term. This has probably encouraged some shareholders to sell down the stock.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Fidelity National Information Services is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Fidelity National Information Services stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Fidelity National Information Services the TSR over the last 5 years was -45%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
Fidelity National Information Services shareholders are up 11% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 8% endured over half a decade. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Fidelity National Information Services is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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