金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报指，周四阿里(09988)发布财报，Q3财季超预期，单季度营收、营业利润同比+8%、+53%，AI相关产品收入连续六季度三位数同比增长，从逻辑上来看，财报及指引超预期：1）为科技股重估逻辑提供了坚实的盈利支撑和远期CAPEX指引，头部企业业绩验证支持下市场或从风险偏好驱动转向盈利预期/盈利验证驱动；2）基本面实质性改善或将为重视数据验证的主动型外资提供明确的买入逻辑，周五阿里带动的盈利验证行情热度已外扩至中国电信、哔哩哔哩等；3）往前看，市场未来或根据财报与CAPEX节奏复制美股23-24年的交易逻辑，未来需关注盈利成长持续性，产业周期是否全面革命需观察。该行指，往前看，阿里财报超预期或成为本轮中国资产重估的又一“里程碑”，市场或由交易逐步转向由盈利预期/盈利验证驱动的中长期资产配置，行情扩散下本轮或更加可持续。中期维度，该行继续看好中国科技股价值重估行情演绎。结构上，维持哑铃型配置思路：1）配置在DeepSeek发布催化下盈利预期有所上修的港股互联网与科技硬件标的，把握中国科技股价值重估机会；2）挖掘受益于AI产业发展、自身具备景气上行或政策面边际改善且有空间的板块，如港股创新药；3）盈利预期相对稳健的红利标的，同时在科技重估扩散行情下有受益机会的，如通讯等，仍可作为底仓配置选择。
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