智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，维持阿里巴巴-W(09988)“买入”评级，目标价由140港元上调18%至165港元。阿里巴巴截至12月底止第三财季业绩带来惊喜，大和看好其未来三至四个季度的客户管理收入增长，认为这将推动淘宝天猫集团重新评级；同时考虑到高鑫零售(06808)在2026-2027财年剥离、更高的CMR以及云端收入增长，故上调2025-2027财年的每股盈利预测5-15%。
由于阿里巴巴将在未来三年增加资本支出，大和预测集团2026-2027财政年度的资本支出将分别达1030亿元及1020亿元人民币。该行相信，集团的资本支出将高出同业，将助力未来数年赢得云端业务的市场份额，亦将继续推动其云端业务的重新评级。该行预测，集团2025年财年第4季云端服务收入将增15%。
展望2025财年第4季，大和预计阿里巴巴CMR将同比增9.5%，因长期而言，全站推的渗透率目标将达到所有商户的30%，中小企业商户的投资回报率亦将持续改善。由于高鑫零售将于2026财年剥离阿里巴巴，加上CMR的强劲增长，故大和预计TTG的EBITA将在2026财年维持正增长。
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