There's been a notable change in appetite for Boise Cascade Company (NYSE:BCC) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 12% to US$107. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$6.7b and statutory earnings per share of US$9.57. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Boise Cascade after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Boise Cascade

Taking into account the latest results, Boise Cascade's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$6.77b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 17% to US$8.23 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$7.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.09 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 5.1% to US$135, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Boise Cascade analyst has a price target of US$155 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$115. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Boise Cascade is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Boise Cascade's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 6.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Boise Cascade.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Boise Cascade. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Boise Cascade going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Boise Cascade you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.