金吾财讯 | 中泰国际研报指出，该行近期审视了海吉亚医疗(06078)2024年下半年营运情况，预计由于终端患者消费能力偏弱及医保控费趋严等原因，下半年销售收入可能逊于市场预期，该行将2024年收入与股东净利润预测分别下调6.5%与7.5%。该行指出，为了舒缓医疗机构的经营压力，国家医保局近日表示将全面推进医保即时结算，即患者就医后医保基金结算给医院的时间将从原来的40-60天缩短。该行认为长远看该政策有助舒缓医疗机构的资金压力，但根据该行向多家医院营运商的了解，由于各地医保结余情况不同，政策落地时间预计也会各不相同，因此对企业盈利实际见效可能略需时间。海吉亚旗下的医院中，部分位于医保基金相对不足的三四线地区，预计短期内这些地区的医院经营仍受影响。考虑到这些情况，该行将2025-26E的收入预测分别下调5.3%、5.7%，股东净利润预测下调7.4%、8.3%。根据调整后盈利模型，该行预计2023-26E股东净利润CAGR为13.3%。综合以上情况，该行将目标价从22.30港元调整至19.86港元，对应13.0倍2025EPER（前值为13.5倍）及10.9%上涨空间，反映盈利预测的下调，给予“增持”评级。
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