Shareholders might have noticed that American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.6% to US$15.23 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$54b were what the analysts expected, American Airlines Group surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$1.24 per share, an impressive 48% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for American Airlines Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for American Airlines Group from 20 analysts is for revenues of US$57.2b in 2025. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 83% to US$2.35. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$57.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.34 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$20.86. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic American Airlines Group analyst has a price target of US$30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$14.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that American Airlines Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than American Airlines Group.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple American Airlines Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - American Airlines Group has 4 warning signs (and 2 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.