金吾财讯 | 财通证券发研指，华润饮料(02460)包装水品牌怡宝是国内两大龙头之一，其他饮料产品持续培育，如至本清润、蜜水系列等，共13个品牌56个SKU。目前公司90%以上的营收来自包装饮用水业务，大本营位于广东，南部为优势区域，全国化持续拓展。公司IPO发行价格为14.5港元/股，募集资金总额约50.43亿港元，将主要用于产能扩张及渠道建设。该行指，包装饮用水是即饮行业最大子品类，整体呈稳健增长趋势，格局相对稳固，2023年CR5为58.6%。但2024年行业竞争激烈，农夫山泉推出绿瓶水下探一元价格带，娃哈哈抓住舆论红利发力包装水建设，多家品牌促销降价。该行认为，长期趋势看，品质优化、品类细化仍是行业主线，渠道建设的下沉、全面和精耕是核心竞争壁垒所在。该行表示，预计公司2024-2026年实现营收145.9/158.7/173.0亿元，同比分别增长7.9%/8.8%/9.0%；归母净利润14.9/17.0/19.2亿元，同比分别增长12.2%/13.9%/13.3%，对应PE20/18/16x，首次覆盖，给予公司“增持”评级。
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