金吾财讯 | 东吴证券发研指，FY2025Q3阿里巴巴(09988)实现营业收入2801亿元（yoy+8%)，高于一致预期为2773.7亿元；非公认会计准则下的归母净利润511亿元（yoy+7%），高于一致预期的461.3亿元。该行指，FY25Q3阿里云智能业务实现13%的同比增长，如预期重回双位数增长，财报首次明确提出“AI驱动”作为核心战略。本地生活业务饿了么所属的本地生活集团（DME），亏损持续收窄，经营效率显著提升。国际数字商业速卖通平台不断丰富产品供应，构建多元化的业务模式，Choice业务的单位经济效益有所改善。考虑淘天业务和国际业务的投入仍维持在较高水平，在GMV增长超预期的当下，该行认为FY2025Q3公司整体EBITAMargin仍处于恢复阶段。因此维持FY2025/FY2026/FY2027EPS为8.14/8.82/9.55元的盈利预测，对应PE（Non-GAAP）为15.8/14.6/13.5倍（港币/人民币=0.93，2025年2月23日）。考虑公司GMV增长情况及货币化进程的加快，以及公司持续回购分红，维持“买入”评级。
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