智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，预计随着动力煤需求接近见顶，今年需求增幅将放缓。目前煤矿库存已达到多年来的高位，预计今明年煤价将下跌。如果没有供应限制，现货煤价可能降至长期基准合约价格水平。
花旗预测，秦皇岛港5500煤价平均价格今明两年将分别下降至每吨760元和700元人民币，同比分别下降11.2%和7.9%。
在此背景下，该行维持中国神华(01088)H股“买入”评级，但目标价从41.4港元下调至32.7港元，因股息收益率仍具吸引力。基于煤价和净利润预期走低，将中煤能源(01898)H股评级从“买入”下调至“中性”，目标价由10.7港元降至8.3港元。尽管煤炭子板块的利润率依然强劲，但仍是该行在材料行业中最不看好的子领域。
花旗亦开启了两组配对交易(pair trades)，第一组是中国宏桥(01378)(增持)/中煤能源(减持)。第二组是海螺水泥(600585.SH)(增持)/中国神华(601088.SH)(减持)。
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