So much for Donald Trump being the crypto industry's favorite president. But the Bitcoin selloff opens up a window for investors to scoop up crypto-related stocks that are suddenly on sale.
Since Inauguration Day, Bitcoin prices have tumbled more than 20% from an all-time high just below $110,000 to about $85,000. That decline has helped spur steep declines in Coinbase Global, which has fallen more than 20% for the five days ended Feb. 25.
That's despite the fact that the two companies are no longer in the regulatory crosshairs of the Securities and Exchange Commission after the SEC dropped investigations into them. Paul Atkins, Trump's nominee to be the agency's new head, is viewed as a crypto ally, as opposed to former chair Gary Gensler, who was persona non grata for crypto investors.
The changing of the guard at the SEC "probably marks the beginning of the end of 'regulation by enforcement' era targeted to crypto," said Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau. "This new regime will not only benefit Coinbase, but also the whole crypto industry." Lau attributed the recent pullback in Coinbase's stock more to macro-related factors, adding that "Coinbase's fundamentals and outlook remain strong, and valuation is attractive." He has a price target of $388 on Coinbase, which is 85% above current levels.
Steven Nie of Daiwa Capital Markets is even more bullish, with a price target of $400 for Coinbase, which trades at 28 times 2025 earnings estimates, a steep discount to its five-year average. Nie said in a report that the company's first quarter guidance was strong and that trading volumes so far this quarter "remain resilient...despite the recent crypto market corrections."
Assuming Bitcoin prices stabilize, Coinbase should bounce back too. Robinhood, a more diversified brokerage, is also trading at around 28 times earnings estimates for this year and could benefit as well. But there's more to the crypto ecosystem than the investment firms. Bitcoin miners, which run complex mathematical problems to generate new Bitcoin, also may rebound. Shares of top miners Riot Platforms, MARA Holdings, Core Scientific, and CleanSpark have plunged this year.
But Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch, who rates all four stocks Overweight, thinks Bitcoin prices should stabilize and that the crypto bull market could last another 12 to 16 months. "This should result in elevated Bitcoin mining revenue for the foreseeable future," he wrote. The stocks trade at enterprise value/Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) multiples in the mid-single digits to low double digits -- reasonable given the expectations for strong revenue and adjusted Ebitda growth.
Crypto miners are also starting to diversify, pivoting toward using their high-performance computing technology to help power data centers running artificial intelligence. "Bitcoin mining data centers are equipped with advanced cooling systems and have access to cheap, substantial energy sources. This presents an ideal solution for these needs," said Prakash Vijayan, an assistant portfolio manager at Driehaus Capital Management, in a report.
Yes, these stocks will remain volatile, rising and falling with Bitcoin prices, much like Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy does. But that company is arguably the most tied to the whims of crypto sentiment since it owns a massive amount of Bitcoin, which is one reason Barron's has recommended avoiding it.
The rest of the sector is slightly less risky. And with the SEC now fully embracing Bitcoin, it's hard to imagine how crypto prices -- or stocks -- will remain depressed for long.
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