金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，携程(09961)4Q24总收入为128亿元人民币，同比增长23%，较市场一致预期高4%；non-GAAP营业利润为28亿元人民币，同样较市场一致预期高4%，这得益于运营费用的优化好于预期。2024年全年，携程集团的收入同比增长20%，达到534亿元人民币，non-GAAP营业利润/净利润分别同比增长23%/38%，至162亿元人民币/180亿元人民币。该行指，考虑到仍处于亏损阶段的Trip.com收入增长强于预期，以及由于国际航班运力恢复慢于预期导致2025年出境游业务的收入增长可能慢于此前预期的综合影响，该行将2025年的收入预测上调了1%，同时将non-GAAP净利润预测下调了1%。该行认为，携程集团业绩后股价下跌11%已较为充分反映了市场对公司2025年因支持国际业务扩张的增量投资可能导致利润率收缩的短期担忧。该行认为，在其不断增强的供应链能力以及国内和出境游业务运营效率提升的助力下，携程有望在未来几个季度持续给出好于市场预期的业绩。该行基于DCF模型的目标价微调至70.0美元（前值：71.0美元），对应20.4x2025EPE（Non-GAAP）。维持“买入”评级。
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