金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，预计2025-30年中国内地新增新型储能装机约190GW，是现有装机规模的2.4倍，到2030年4小时以上储能装机占比达到50%。该行指，关于长时储能技术格局的演变，考虑到锂离子电池储能初始投资成本优势，该行认为短期内锂离子电池储能仍将是主流。2025-2030年，压缩空气储能和液流电池商业化进程加速，两者的最终占比视乎降本进度。氢储能能量转换效率偏低，且成本较高，更适合季节性、大容量的储能，目前仍处于早期研发阶段，该行预计2035年商业化进度才有望加速。该行续指，液流电池支撑长时储能发展，全钒、锌溴等商业化进程加快。主流液流电池中，凭借在安全性、循环寿命以及灵活性上的优势，全钒液流电池电化学性能综合优势明显，单Wh成本已经下探至2元并仍有下降的空间。锌溴液流电池在技术上不断突破，锌枝晶、自放电、溴及溴化物腐蚀性等问题初步得到了解决，且由于工作温域较宽、初始投资成本低，已经在新疆、青海等高寒地区得到了应用，未来规模化之后成本优势有望更为显着。产业链上，该行建议重点关注全钒液流电池隔膜的国产替代机会。
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