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金吾财讯 | 德邦证券发研指，华润饮料(02460)目前已成为中国第二大包装水企业及最大饮用纯净水企业，2023 年零售额口径市占率分别为18.4%/32.7%。此外，公司战略性布局饮料品类，2023 年在茶饮料、果汁类饮料、咖啡饮料等品类市场份额均位居中国市场前十，不断向“一超多强”多品类发展格局前进。公司股权结构清晰稳定，控股股东华润集团为以实业为核心的国有多元化控股企业集团，管理层行业积淀深厚且多为华润背景，助力战略落地。

该行指，公司包装水主业长期位居行业第二，全国化扩张驱动收入增长；同时，自产率提升带来的毛利率改善确定性高。饮料业务第二曲线逐步发力，长期成长性较强，有望打开收入天花板。

该行预计公司 2024-26 年分别实现营业收入 143.3/154.2/167.0 亿元，同比+6.0%/+7.6%/+8.3%；实现归母净利润 16.2/19.9/23.2 亿元，同比+21.5%/+23.2%/+16.6%，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。

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