Has Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s (NYSE:AJG) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

Simply Wall St.
25 Feb

Arthur J. Gallagher's (NYSE:AJG) stock is up by a considerable 13% over the past month. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Arthur J. Gallagher's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Arthur J. Gallagher

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Arthur J. Gallagher is:

7.3% = US$1.5b ÷ US$20b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.07 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Arthur J. Gallagher's Earnings Growth And 7.3% ROE

At first glance, Arthur J. Gallagher's ROE doesn't look very promising. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 15%. Although, we can see that Arthur J. Gallagher saw a modest net income growth of 12% over the past five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

As a next step, we compared Arthur J. Gallagher's net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 12% in the same period.

NYSE:AJG Past Earnings Growth February 25th 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is Arthur J. Gallagher fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Arthur J. Gallagher Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Arthur J. Gallagher has a healthy combination of a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 41% (or a retention ratio of 59%) and a respectable amount of growth in earnings as we saw above, meaning that the company has been making efficient use of its profits.

Moreover, Arthur J. Gallagher is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 19% over the next three years. As a result, the expected drop in Arthur J. Gallagher's payout ratio explains the anticipated rise in the company's future ROE to 18%, over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Arthur J. Gallagher has some positive attributes. With a high rate of reinvestment, albeit at a low ROE, the company has managed to see a considerable growth in its earnings. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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