中金发表评级报告，预料名创优品(09896.HK) 第四季收入48.4亿元人民币，按年增长26%。非国际财务报告准则净利润达8.1亿元人民币，按年增长22%。
该行表示，考虑线下客流承压，预计名创优品第四季中国业务同店增长面临一定客流压力；但渠道扩张方面公司延续快速开店，特别是创新性尝试IP Land等大店陆续投入营运，为品牌带来外延增长和更高的品牌热度。至于海外市场方面，中金预计整体收入按年增长约45%，门店延续快速扩张，菲律宾、意大利及英国等国家均在快速开店，并推出哈利波特主题活动。
中金考虑到名创优品高毛利率的海外业务(特别是海外直营业务)占比提升和IP产品占比提升，预计第四季毛利率有望提升至46%以上。进入第四第旺季，该行预计直营业务有望体现出正向经营杠杆，料第四季公司经营利润率按年小幅提升至约20%，非国际财务报告准则净利润为8.1亿元人民币，按年增长 22%。
此外，该行考虑到名创优品的终端门店经营压力，将公司去年每股盈利预测下调3%至2.1元人民币，今年则下调1%至2.59元人民币，基本维持明年预测为3.16元人民币。另将其目标价下调15%至48.57元，评级“跑赢行业”。(ca/j)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-02-25 16:25。)
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