汇丰研究发表报告指,携程-S(09961.HK) (TCOM.US) H股在业绩公布当日(25日)下跌12%,主要由于管理层指引利润率将会收缩,受累于公司加大海外营销开支以资助其国际平台的增长。该行预计,虽然携程短期盈利增长可能落后于收入增长,但公司更快的海外扩张可能会从国际业务更快转变中获得更坚实的基础。
汇丰提及,携程去年第四季度营收较该行及市场预期高4%,按年增速加快至23%;行销开支亦小幅上升至占收入的26%,即按年增加45%,超过收入的增幅。因此,经调整营业利润率为21.7%,按年跌4个百分点,与预期一致,但较该行预期低0.5个百分点。
汇丰认为,中国境内及出境旅游需求应如期继续正常化,但同时认为携程有潜力由海外及入境旅游中获得增量增长。另外,该行对携程计划在2025财年将股东回报翻一番至6亿美元感到鼓舞(包括4亿美元回购及2亿美元派息),并认为随着海外业务不断改善,公司还有进一步提高股东回报的空间。
汇丰预期,携程2025财年营收将增长15%;经调整营业利润将增长8%,意味着利润率为28.5%,低于 2024财年的30.4%。另外,该行将携程(TCOM.US) 美股目标价由78美元下调至75美元,H股目标价由608.4港元降至585港元,维持“买入”评级,同时认为公司业绩公布后的股价回调有些过度,可能为投资者提供一个有吸引力的买入点。(js/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-02-25 16:25。) (美股为即时串流报价; OTC市场股票除外,资料延迟最少15分钟。)
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