金吾财讯 | 中国神华(01088)逆市上涨，截止发稿，涨2.05%，报29.85港元，成交额1.57亿港元。东吴证券报告指出，煤炭价格目前主要受需求不及预期且库存累积过高导致上涨动能有限，后续需求角度一方面伴随春节后工业复产复工，另一方面气温短期偏低，终端需求有所增长，或将带动煤价上涨。光大证券报告指出，低卡煤现货跌破长协价格，煤价短期止跌有望。（1）截至2 月21 日，CCTD环渤海动力煤4500 大卡现货参考价为559 元/吨，已低于年度长协价格（565元/吨），短期长协价格将对现货价格产生一定的支撑；（2）年初以来煤价的下跌很大程度上由于需求低迷（年初以来，沿海八省动力煤日耗偏低，Mysteel统计的全国工程项目开复工率也明显低于去年同期），但本周开始，工程项目资金到位率已回升至接近去年同期水平，预计下周开始下游开工有望改善。
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