【关注船司开启新一轮价格战风险，运价或有进一步下破风险】金十期货2月25日讯，在近期市场交易主线方面，前期运价回落加速后，船司在FAK跌至逼近长协价后陆续跟进3月提涨；受各家船司宣涨3月运价、MSC公布第9、10周停航等利多消息带动，EC各月合约涨势持续。目前航司3月均给出4000美元/FEU的线上运价，2月运价仍然偏弱。涨价或推动部分货量前置。当前工厂正在逐步恢复生产中，建议关注前期低位提涨交易驱动减弱，后续宣涨落地不及预期的回调风险。策略方面，我们认为，2月中旬至3月上旬，盘面或维持宽幅震荡；建议关注3月挺价后运价回落幅度及绝对值水平，如未跌破2月低位（2000-2200美元/FEU），可考虑逢低做多2504、2506合约。但如装载率持续低位，关注船司开启新一轮价格战风险，或有进一步下破风险。中东地缘政治事件、关税政策等事件仍有可能对盘面形成情绪冲击，建议做好风险管理。
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