By Connor Hart

Approximately 100,000 U.S. aluminum industry jobs could be on the chopping block due to tariffs targeting the metal, according to Alcoa Chief Executive William Oplinger.

The Pittsburgh-based aluminum company estimates that a 25% tariff on aluminum imports would result in about 20,000 direct U.S. industry jobs being cut, as well as many as 80,000 indirect jobs being eliminated, Oplinger said Tuesday at the BMO Global Metals and Mining conference.

"We're clearly advocating based on the fact that this is bad for the aluminum industry in the U.S.," Oplinger said. "It's bad for American workers."

The U.S. aluminum industry directly employs more than 164,000 workers, according to the Aluminum Association, meaning about 12% of jobs could be affected by the tariff. The industry supports nearly 700,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs, producing more than $228 billion in economic output, according to the trade group.

The projection comes after President Trump earlier this month announced 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum to the U.S., effective in March. The proclamation has left aluminum buyers, which include manufacturers of products like automobiles, beverage cans and home appliances, scrambling to stock up on the metal.

As it stands, the U.S. is short of 4 million metric tons of aluminum annually, and the deficit is made up largely through imports from Canada and Mexico, Oplinger said.

The company said it will also advocate for an exemption on Canadian imports, which would allow two-thirds of the metal consumed in the U.S. to continue to come across the border without a tariff, he said.

Alcoa has some idle capacity in the U.S., though it is "very old, very inefficient capacity that has not been run in a number of years," Oplinger said. There are significant costs associated with restarting these operations, and uncertainty surrounding the tariff, such as how long it would be in place, makes executing strategies difficult.

"We make decisions around aluminum production that have a horizon of 20 to 40 years," he said. "We would not be making an investment in the United States based on a tariff structure that could be in place for a much shorter period of time."

Under current conditions, Oplinger said a tariff waged against Canada would most likely cause more global aluminum production to shift to Europe. In order to support more U.S.-based aluminum production, Alcoa would need to secure a cheap, low-cost energy source, he added.

Companies reliant upon the metal for manufacturing have issued their own warnings on the planned tariff, whose costs will likely be passed onto American consumers, according to analysts.

Aluminum can maker Ball said earlier this month it was working to renegotiate deals with its suppliers, adding that the tariff would dampen its current outlook. Chief Executive Dan Fisher said higher costs would weigh on consumers, stifling demand and slowing growth as consumers are already stressed.

Coca-Cola Chief Executive James Quincey said the tariff could make its sodas more expensive, and added the company will consider bottling more of its products in glass and plastic instead.

Write to Connor Hart at connor.hart@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 25, 2025 12:53 ET (17:53 GMT)

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