• Deutsche Bank expects the Nio main brand to deliver around 8,000 units in February, and the Onvo sub-brand around 5,000 units.

• Tesla is at its lowest in almost 24 months as it clears out older Model Y inventory.

Ahead of the bazooka of February sales figures tomorrow from China's major electric vehicle (EV) makers, Deutsche Bank shared their forecasts as before.

In a February 26 research note, analyst Wang Bin's team estimated that Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO) would deliver about 13,000 units for the full month of February, up 60 percent year-on-year but down 6 percent sequentially.

The team expected the Nio main brand to deliver about 8,000 units in February, with the Onvo sub-brand at about 5,000 units.

In the last three weeks of February, Nio's domestic retail sales totaled 8,200 units, the team noted.

According to dealer feedback, Nio's new order flow for the whole month of February was estimated at 16,000 units, of which about 11,000 are for the Nio brand and about 5,000 for Onvo, the team said.

To boost new order flow and sales, the Nio brand has started a five-year zero-interest rate auto financing program for its entire range of products in February, which is available to buyers with a 20 percent down payment, compared to a three-year zero-percent auto financing in January, the team noted.

Nio Inc delivered 13,863 vehicles in January, up 37.87 percent year-on-year but 55.48 percent lower than December. The deliveries included 7,951 units of Nio's main brand and 5,912 units of Onvo.

The beginning of the year is usually a slow time for the Chinese automotive industry, especially in the months where the New Year holiday falls. This year's Chinese New Year holiday was from January 28 to February 4, compared with February 10-17 last year.

Deutsche Bank expected Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) to deliver about 31,000 units in February, up about 580 percent year-on-year and flat sequentially. This includes domestic retail deliveries of about 29,000 units and overseas deliveries of about 2,000 units.

The team expects about 16,000 deliveries of the Xpeng Mona M03 sedan, about 8,000 units of the P7+ sedan and the remaining about 7,000 units from other Xpeng products in February.

Xpeng retailed about 20,000 units domestically in the first three weeks of February, the team said.

Based on dealer feedback, Xpeng's new order flow for the full month of February was estimated at about 27,000 units, slightly lower than the domestic deliveries of about 29,000 units, Deutsche Bank said.

In other words, deliveries in February consumed the order backlog, mainly for the Mona M03 and P7+, the team said.

Deutsche Bank expected Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) to deliver about 28,000 units in February, up 38 percent year-on-year but down 6 percent sequentially.

Li Auto's domestic retail sales totaled 20,000 units in the first three weeks of February, the team noted.

Based on dealer feedback, Li Auto's new order flow in February was estimated to be about 28,000 units, in line with about 28,000 deliveries, the team said.

Deutsche Bank expected Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to deliver about 30,000 units in China in February, the lowest in nearly 24 months, down 8 percent year-on-year and down 11 percent sequentially.

In the first three weeks of February, Tesla China's domestic retail sales totaled 21,000 units, the team noted.

According to dealer feedback, Tesla China's new order flow for February was estimated to be around 60,000 units, mainly for the new-generation Model Y, much higher than the roughly 30,000 deliveries mentioned above, Deutsche Bank said.

That's because Tesla is clearing out older Model Y inventory so that the new-generation Model Y can start deliveries, the team said.

Tesla's China operation is expected to sell only about 10,000 units of the old-generation Model Y in February, compared with average monthly sales of about 40,000 in 2024, according to the team.

Deutsche Bank expected BYD (HKG: 1211, OTCMKTS: BYDDY) to sell about 340,000 wholesale units for the full month of February, up about 180 percent year-on-year and about up 13 percent sequentially.

BYD's domestic deliveries in February were about 205,000 units, up about 80 percent year-on-year and flat sequentially, the team said.

In the first 23 days of February, BYD's wholesale volume reached 240,000 units and domestic retail volume 142,000 units, according to the team.

According to dealer feedback, BYD's new order flow for the whole month of February was estimated to be about 310,000 units, much higher than the domestic deliveries of about 205,000 units, Deutsche Bank said.

This is because many of the new orders are for the "God's Eye C" autonomous-driving version, the availability of which remains relatively limited in February, the team noted.

Deutsche Bank expected Xiaomi (HKG: 1810, OTCMKTS: XIACY) to deliver about 25,000 vehicles in February, up about 9 percent from a year earlier and the second-highest monthly delivery volume after December 2024.

Xiaomi's EV arm Xiaomi EV's domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of February totaled 18,000 units, the team said.

When the difference in calendar days between February 2025 and December 2024 is taken into account, Xiaomi EV had record daily deliveries in February, according to Deutsche Bank.

Based on dealer feedback, Xiaomi EV's new order flow for the full month of February was estimated to be around 45,000 units, much higher than the 25,000 deliveries mentioned above, Deutsche Bank said.

The bank expected Zeekr Group (NYSE: ZK) to deliver about 35,000 units in February, up about 70 percent year-on-year but down about 17 percent sequentially.

That includes about 14,000 units under the Zeekr brand and about 21,000 under the Lynk & Co brand, according to the team.

Zeekr Group's domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of February totaled 21,000 units, the team said.

New order flow for the Zeekr brand for the full month of February was estimated at about 14,000 units, according to dealer feedback, the team said.

Zeekr announced on February 14 that it completed transactions with Geely entities and Lynk & Co had become an indirect, non-wholly owned subsidiary of the company.

Deutsche Bank expected Leapmotor (HKG: 9863) to deliver about 23,000 units in February, up 250 percent year-on-year but down 9 percent sequentially. Of these, about 21,000 units were retailed domestically and about 2,000 units were exported.

According to dealer feedback, Leapmotor's new order flow in February was estimated at about 26,000 units, the team said.

The bank expected Huawei-backed Aito to deliver about 14,000 units in February, down 34 percent year-on-year and down 36 percent sequentially.

Domestic retail sales of the Aito brand totaled 8,000 units in the first three weeks of February, the team said.

Based on dealer feedback, Aito's new order flow in February was estimated at about 17,000 units, down 23 percent sequentially, according to Deutsche Bank.

The team attributed the decline in new orders for Aito to competition from the Luxeed R7 SUV, which is equipped with the same Huawei autonomous driving and intelligent cockpit technology and is also sold in Huawei's HIMA (Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance) showrooms.

Aito is a new brand jointly created by Huawei and Seres Group, and Luxeed is a new brand jointly created by Huawei and Chery.