金吾财讯 | 新鸿基地产(00016)早盘股价表现疲软，截至发稿，报71.9港元，跌4.07%，成交额1.57亿港元。消息面上，截至去年12月底止中期，公司股东应占溢利75.23亿元（港币，下同），同比跌17.74%，每股基本溢利3.61港元。派中期息0.95港元，与去年同期持平。期内，收入399.33亿元，同比增长44.99%。高盛发报告指，公司上半年业绩符合该行预期，收入该行预期8%，主要受惠于香港物业发展预定量，EBIT低于高盛预计7%，主要原因是物业发展利润承压。净负债率从18.3%减少至17.8%，管理层预计未来仍会减少。管理层继续对全年派息比率的指引为40-50%。该行下调其2025财年基本每股盈利预测6%，保持对2026财年预测不变，下调2027财年预测3%，下调2025-2027财年每股股息预测5%，5%，3%。预计2025财年股息将持平在3.75港元，2026财年开始增长。预计派息比率(DPO)约为46%，低于此前五年的平均51%。目标价从92港元降至90港元，维持“买入”评级。
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