Market Today: Alphabet Oversold, Tesla Eyes Ride-Hailing, Dell Beats Estimates

GuruFocus
28 Feb

NVIDIA's Disappointing Day

Today was a disappointing day for NVIDIA (NVDA, Financial), which initially traded nearly 3.0% higher in pre-open action following its earnings report. However, the stock ended the day down 8.5%, closing at 120.15. This decline contributed to a broader market correction phase driven by inflation worries and growth concerns, particularly due to tariff proposals and efforts to cut government spending.

Market Developments

  • The day began with NVIDIA (NVDA, Financial) rolling over quickly after the market opened.
  • President Trump announced tariffs for Canada and Mexico starting March 4, with an additional 10% tariff for China on the same day. A 25% tariff for the EU is also expected soon.
  • Comments from Fed Presidents Schmid, Hammack, and Harker indicated no rush to lower the fed funds rate.
  • Growth concerns were heightened by a jump in weekly initial jobless claims and a record low pending home sales index in January.
  • Month-end trading activity also influenced market movements.

Market Indices Performance

The S&P 500 fell below 5,900, with mega-cap stocks primarily responsible for the decline. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK, Financial) decreased by 2.6%, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.9%. Despite the overall downtrend, the S&P 500 financial (+0.6%), energy (+0.5%), real estate (+0.4%), and consumer staples (+0.02%) sectors managed to finish higher.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8% and is now down 8.1% from its December all-time high. The Russell 2000 declined 1.6%, marking a 13.3% fall from its November high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, impacted by losses in NVIDIA and related stocks, plummeted 6.1%, entering bear market territory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, after being up 451 points, ended the day below the unchanged line but still holds a 1.6% gain for the year. The market cap-weighted S&P 500 turned negative for the year (-0.3%), joining the Russell 2000 (-4.1%), Nasdaq (-4.0%), and the S&P Midcap 400 Index (-1.8%) in negative territory.

Economic Data Review

  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 22 increased by 22,000 to 242,000, the highest level since early December.
  • The second estimate for Q4 GDP was 2.3%, driven by consumer and government spending. However, concerns about future GDP growth persist due to potential government spending cuts and tariffs.
  • January Durable Goods Orders rose 3.1%, with nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increasing by 0.8%.
  • January Pending Home Sales declined 4.6%, marking the lowest level on record since 2001.

Upcoming Economic Indicators

  • January Personal Income (consensus 0.3%), Personal Spending (consensus 0.2%), PCE Price Index (consensus 0.3%), and Core-PCE Price Index (consensus 0.3%).
  • January Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods, Adv. Retail Inventories, and Adv. Wholesale Inventories.
  • February Chicago PMI (consensus 41.2).

Global Markets and Commodities

European markets saw mixed results with the DAX down 1.2%, FTSE up 0.3%, and CAC down 0.5%. In Asia, the Nikkei gained 0.3%, Hang Seng fell 0.3%, and Shanghai increased 0.2%. In commodities, Crude Oil rose to 70.36, Nat Gas decreased to 3.93, Gold fell to 2895.20, Silver decreased to 32.103, and Copper increased to 4.62.

Guru Stock Picks

MS Global Franchise Portfolio has made the following transactions:

  • Reduce in XAMS:REN by 1.69%
  • Sold out in MIL:CPR
  • Add in TMO by 20.51%

Today's News

Alphabet (GOOG, Financial) has entered oversold territory, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 29.17, the lowest since September. This suggests the stock may be undervalued, potentially offering a buying opportunity for investors. Historically, Alphabet has rebounded significantly from such lows, as seen in its 40.8% rise from September 2024 to February 2025.

Tesla (TSLA, Financial) is advancing its plans to launch a ride-hailing service in California, having applied for a transportation charter-party carrier permit. This step indicates the potential involvement of human drivers initially, with a future transition to a full robotaxi service. Tesla currently holds approval to test autonomous vehicles with safety drivers in the state.

Dell Technologies (DELL, Financial) reported a strong Q4 performance, with Non-GAAP EPS of $2.68 beating estimates by $0.16. Although revenue of $23.93B fell short by $640M, the company's Infrastructure Solutions Group saw a 22% revenue increase, driven by a 37% rise in server and networking sales. Dell's shares rose 3% in extended trading.

SoundHound AI (SOUN, Financial) exceeded expectations with a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.05, beating by $0.03, and revenue of $34.54M, surpassing estimates by $0.84M. The company ended the year with nearly $200 million in cash and no debt, raising its 2025 revenue outlook to a range of $157 to $177 million.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB, Financial) announced a significant multi-launch agreement with Japan's iQPS, marking one of its largest Electron launch deals. This agreement adds to a previous contract, totaling eight dedicated launches, further supporting iQPS' satellite constellation development.

Figure, a robotics company, announced its AI system, Helix, has advanced rapidly, prompting an accelerated timeline for launching home robots. Backed by investors such as Amazon's Jeff Bezos and Nvidia (NVDA, Financial), Figure raised $675M in February 2024 to support its robotics ambitions.

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN, Financial) experienced a drop in after-hours trading following weak Q1 guidance. The company forecasted Q1 revenue of $1.0B-$1.075B, below expectations, and projected a contribution profit of $40M-$50M. Despite surpassing Q4 revenue estimates with $1.08B, the guidance disappointed investors.

Archer Aviation (ACHR, Financial) reported a Q4 net loss of $198.1M. The company raised $300M to strengthen its financial position amid ongoing valuation concerns and market uncertainties surrounding eVTOL stocks.

Vistra Corp. (VST, Financial) highlighted a transformational year in 2024 with the acquisition of nuclear sites and retail customers. The company exceeded its adjusted EBITDA guidance, supported by a $545 million nuclear production tax credit, and reaffirmed its 2025 guidance.

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