金吾财讯 | 国泰君安表示，资本市场回稳向好叠加较低基数，基本面改善有望超预期。2025年以新“国九条”为核心的“1+N”政策体系将整体进入落实期，中长期资金入市政策框架明晰，叠加更多增量政策有望接续推出，资本市场持续回稳向好，利好券商板块基本面及估值修复。2024年一季度受市场极端波动影响，券商投资业务受损导致板块盈利有所承压。从当前时点看，资本市场回稳向好有望驱动券商零售及机构业务增长，带来基本面改善超预期。一方面年初以来市场交投活跃度大幅改善，截至2月21日，市场日均股基成交额16764亿元，同比提升77.6%，预计零售业务有望支撑板块盈利增长，另一方面，市场逐步回暖之下，券商投资业务亦有望迎来修复。该行预计上市券商25Q1盈利有望实现同比较快增长，以当前市场环境及交投活跃度推算，预计25Q1利润增速有望达44%。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.