Shareholders might have noticed that Henry Schein, Inc. (NASDAQ:HSIC) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.6% to US$72.12 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$13b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 4.7% to hit US$3.05 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Henry Schein

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Henry Schein's 14 analysts is for revenues of US$13.0b in 2025. This reflects a modest 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 27% to US$3.98. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$13.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.11 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$80.23, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Henry Schein analyst has a price target of US$90.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$55.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Henry Schein shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Henry Schein's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Henry Schein.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$80.23, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Henry Schein going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Henry Schein that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.