金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，春节过后，中国资产表现领跑全球，尤其是海外上市的中国资产，呈现股、债、汇齐涨的局面。其中，恒生科技指数的上涨最具指标意义，15个交易日涨幅达到24%。该行指，与2022年来多轮市场反弹不同之处在于，本轮上涨不受政策宽松预期驱动、也暂时未定价较为广谱的周期性复苏。此外，更令人鼓舞的是，本轮企业的自发性投资有望引领总需求增长；而非重复此前由传统基建、地产等行业引领需求回升，或者由国企和地方平台公司扩张从而带动资本开支周期的逻辑。海外投资者往往对私有部门主导的投资周期给予更高的估值。不过，从目前的估值水平分析，市场仍只是在“纠错”过程中，难言过于乐观。往前看，中国AI产业链的发展及中美关系在多极化世界中的重新校准，或将是驱动市场估值/风险溢价变化的主要因素。而此时，如果周期性行业在加速出清后出现企稳、甚至和中美关系/AI高速发展形成需求和预期的正向反馈，则市场热度不仅有望延续，且可能进一步扩散。
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