金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，2025年春节假期前七天（正月初一至初七）澳门总入境客流恢复至2019年同期的98%，恢复度与2024Q4一致，整体符合预期。但因春节假期澳门旅游市场家庭出游占比高使得博彩市场“旺丁不旺财”，澳门博彩数据稍逊引发板块明显回调。
该行观察到春节假期后需求回暖明显，2月GGR有望呈现“长尾效应”，预计1-2月GGR总和较2024年同期保持持平。该行认为近期板块回调已充分反映了需求前景及盈利预期的下修，在自上而下无增量利多/利空的中性假设下，该行预计2025年GGR低个位数增长。除经营层面带来的市场份额博弈外，股息率或为2025年行业投资另一关注重点。当前行业整体EV/EBITDA估值仅8x，低于历史平均估值中枢1-2个标准差。
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