Behavioral healthcare services provider Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. ACHC is set to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 27, 2025, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at 72 cents per share on revenues of $779.89 million. 

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The fourth-quarter earnings estimate declined 2 cents per share in the past 60 days. The bottom-line estimation indicates a year-over-year decrease of 15.3%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 5%.

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For 2024, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Acadia Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $3.16 billion, implying a rise of 7.9% year over year. But the consensus mark for current year EPS is pegged at $3.38, implying a fall of around 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.

Acadia Healthcarebeat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.9%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.

ACHC has an Earnings ESP of -5.44% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What is Shaping ACHC’s Q4 Results?

Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Acute Inpatient Psychiatric Facilities’ revenues signal a nearly 6% increase from the year-ago figure of $375.6 million. Also, both the consensus estimate and our model estimate for Residential Treatment Centers’ revenues indicate a 23% jump from the year-ago level of $84.3 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for U.S. same-facility patient days signal 4% year-over-year growth. Both estimates for U.S. same-facility admissions indicate a 3.1% increase from a year ago. Also, we expect average length of stay to have increased 1.3% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for revenue per patient day imply a 4% year-over-year rise.

While the above-mentioned factors are likely to have boosted Acadia Healthcare’s fourth-quarter revenues, rising expenses are likely to have affected its profit levels, making an earnings beat uncertain. We expect total expenses to have increased more than 6% in the to-be-reported quarter, due to higher salaries, wages and benefits, professional fees and other operating costs. Also, with rising utilization, supply costs are expected to have increased in the fourth quarter.

Moreover, both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Specialty Treatment Facilities’ revenues signal a nearly 2% decrease from the year-ago figure of $151.3 million. Also, both the consensus estimate and our model estimate for Comprehensive Treatment Centers’ revenues indicate a 1.2% fall from the year-ago figure of $131.6 million.

How Did Other Stocks Perform?

Here are some stocks in the broader Medical space that have already reported earnings for this quarter: HCA Healthcare, Inc. HCA, The Ensign Group, Inc. ENSG and The Cigna Group CI.

HCA Healthcare reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted EPS of $6.22, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.2%, driven byhigher patient volumes giving rise to an increased number of inpatient surgeries and same-facility emergency room visits. However, this upside was partly offset by elevated salaries and benefits expenses. Additional expenses due to Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton also impacted the results.

Ensign reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of $1.49, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.4%, thanks to improved occupancy rates, higher patient days and higher skilled service revenues. The positives were partly offset by an elevated expense level due to the higher cost of services and rents. 

Cigna reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of $6.64, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.2%, due to a decline in its overall medical customer base and elevated medical costs. Nevertheless, the downside was partly offset by expanding specialty volumes in the Evernorth Health Services segment and new client wins.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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