The analysts covering LGI Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ:LGIH) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for LGI Homes from its five analysts is for revenues of US$2.4b in 2025 which, if met, would be a solid 11% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to decrease 6.1% to US$7.87 in the same period. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.19 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about LGI Homes' prospects, administering a measurable cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Check out our latest analysis for LGI Homes

The consensus price target fell 5.6% to US$112, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the LGI Homes' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that LGI Homes is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 11% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.2% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.5% annually. Not only are LGI Homes' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of LGI Homes.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple LGI Homes analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.