The Mosaic Company MOS is set to release fourth-quarter 2024 results after the closing bell on Feb. 27.

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The fertilizer maker delivered a negative earnings surprise of around 16.8%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. It delivered a negative earnings surprise of around 41.4% in the last reported quarter. The company’s fourth-quarter results are likely to reflect the impacts of weak fertilizer prices and disruptions from rail and port strikes and hurricanes.

Mosaic’s shares have lost 19.9% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 3.9% decline.

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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What do MOS’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic’s fourth-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $2,929.4 million, calling for a decline of 7% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

Factors at Play for MOS Stock

The company’s sales volumes and revenues are likely to have been impacted by operational disruptions in the fourth quarter. A delay in Canpotex shipments due to Canadian rail and port strikes is expected to have hurt Mosaic’s potash volumes in the quarter. Lost production and shipments associated with the impacts of hurricanes Helene and Milton are also likely to have affected phosphate volumes.

Our estimate for potash sales volumes for the fourth quarter is pegged at 2.317 million tons. We also expect phosphate sales volumes for the quarter to be 1.701 million tons.

Softer fertilizer prices are likely to have weighed on MOS’s sales and margins. Prices of phosphate and potash have retreated since the back half of 2022 from their peak levels attained in the first half riding on the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and disruptions due to the sanctions in Belarus. Lower selling prices hurt the company’s sales in the third quarter. While prices have recovered somewhat lately, weaker year-over-year selling prices are likely to continue to have hurt MOS’s top line in the fourth quarter.

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Mosaic Company price-eps-surprise | The Mosaic Company Quote

What Our Model Unveils for MOS

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for MOS is -1.89%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 53 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Ashtead Group plc ASHTY, slated to release fiscal third-quarter earnings on March 4, has an Earnings ESP of +11.11% and carries a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus mark for ASHTY’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $3.47.

TriMas Corporation TRS, slated to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 27, has an Earnings ESP of +1.05% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for TRS’ fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 48 cents.

Greif, Inc. GEF, scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings on Feb. 26, has an Earnings ESP of +2.60%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Greif’s earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 72 cents. GEF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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The Mosaic Company (MOS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Greif, Inc. (GEF) : Free Stock Analysis Report

TriMas Corporation (TRS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Ashtead Group PLC (ASHTY) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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