金吾财讯 | 国元国际发报告指出，春节后产地煤矿迅速恢复生产，主产区产能稳定释放，叠加进口煤创历史新高，市场整体供应充足。需求端：电煤受暖冬影响日耗偏低，电厂库存可用天数普遍超20天。库存：港口及社会库存持续累积，短期对煤价形成了较强的压制作用。该行指，春节过后，煤价逐步加大降幅，以北方港口Q5500平仓价为例，2025年2月21日煤价为728元/吨，对比2024年2月21日价格为938元/吨，同比下降210元/吨，降幅达到22%。以通用假设度电煤耗300克/千瓦时来测算，即煤价每降低100元对应成本减少3分/千瓦时，则210元/吨的降幅对应6分/千瓦时成本的减少，即可以抵消6分/千瓦时长协电价的下调。因此，即使不考虑容量电费，目前成本端的下降已经可以抵消大部分省份2025年长协电价对比2024年的下调幅度。如果煤价进一步下行，而火电的盈利弹性将进一步加大。该行表示，若煤价持续下行将增厚火电盈利空间，建议重点关注华能国际(00902)、华电国际(01071)和华润电力(00836)。
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