US natgas prices slide 2% on record output, mild weather forecasts

Reuters
26 Feb
US natgas prices slide 2% on record output, mild weather forecasts

Mild weather allows frozen wells to return to service

US gas output near record high in February

US LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February

By Scott DiSavino

Feb 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Wednesday on record output and forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage to heat homes and businesses than normal for this time of year.

On its last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.9 cents, or 1.7%, to $4.105 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 7:50 a.m. EST (1250 GMT).

Futures for April NGJ25, which will soon be the front-month, were trading down about 1.5% at $4.07 per mmBtu.

That price decline came despite record gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants.

Traders also noted extreme cold earlier this year forced energy firms to pull huge amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to about 11% below the five-year (2020-2024) usual. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January, when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.

Over the past couple of weeks, output dropped from a record daily high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a three-week low of 100.5 bcfd on February 19 as extreme cold froze wells before rising to a two-week high of 104.8 bcfd on February 25 as milder weather unfroze those wells.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 13.

With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 127.3 bcfd this week to 119.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas slid from a record 16.4 bcfd on February 23 to a preliminary two-week low of 15.3 bcfd on Wednesday on signs of a reduction at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd export plant in Louisiana. Analysts noted preliminary data is often changed later in the day.

Gas flows to Cameron slid to a preliminary 10-week low of 1.6 bcfd on Wednesday, down from an average of 2.4 bcfd over the past seven days. Officials at Cameron were not immediately available for comment.

In other LNG news, flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a record high of 1.8 bcfd on Wednesday.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a 10-week low of around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a five-week low of $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Feb 21 Forecast

Week ended Feb 14 Actual

Year ago Feb 21

Five-year average

Feb 21

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-248

-196

-86

-141

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

1,853

2,101

2,401

2,078

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-10.8%

-5.3%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

4.14

4.17

1.80

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

13.07

13.55

8.12

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.86

14.34

8.93

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

277

288

256

344

334

U.S. GFS CDDs

8

7

13

10

9

U.S. GFS TDDs

285

295

259

354

343

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

103.0

103.8

104.0

103.2

95.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

11.1

9.8

9.2

N/A

8.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

Total U.S. Supply

114.1

113.7

113.2

N/A

104.0

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.5

3.8

3.5

N/A

2.9

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.0

6.0

5.9

N/A

5.0

U.S. LNG Exports

15.9

16.0

15.6

14.0

11.3

U.S. Commercial

20.7

14.2

13.4

12.9

15.9

U.S. Residential

35.4

22.7

21.0

20.0

26.4

U.S. Power Plant

34.3

31.9

27.6

30.6

30.0

U.S. Industrial

27.0

24.8

24.4

24.5

25.1

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

3.3

2.7

2.5

2.8

4.0

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

125.9

101.5

94.2

96.0

106.7

Total U.S. Demand

150.1

127.3

119.1

N/A

125.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

85

85

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

83

83

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

84

85

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Feb 28

Week ended Feb 21

2024

2023

2022

Wind

12

11

11

10

11

Solar

6

4

5

4

3

Hydro

6

6

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

36

39

42

41

38

Coal

20

22

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

17

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.88

3.86

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

3.58

3.65

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.52

3.28

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

3.50

3.49

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

3.60

3.55

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

4.16

4.25

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

4.10

3.86

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.85

2.26

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.18

1.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

49.00

67.51

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

35.33

38.89

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

45.86

23.21

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

24.17

17.13

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

18.60

9.27

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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