Mild weather allows frozen wells to return to service
US gas output near record high in February
US LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February
By Scott DiSavino
Feb 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Wednesday on record output and forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage to heat homes and businesses than normal for this time of year.
On its last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.9 cents, or 1.7%, to $4.105 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 7:50 a.m. EST (1250 GMT).
Futures for April NGJ25, which will soon be the front-month, were trading down about 1.5% at $4.07 per mmBtu.
That price decline came despite record gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants.
Traders also noted extreme cold earlier this year forced energy firms to pull huge amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to about 11% below the five-year (2020-2024) usual. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January, when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.
Over the past couple of weeks, output dropped from a record daily high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a three-week low of 100.5 bcfd on February 19 as extreme cold froze wells before rising to a two-week high of 104.8 bcfd on February 25 as milder weather unfroze those wells.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 13.
With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 127.3 bcfd this week to 119.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas slid from a record 16.4 bcfd on February 23 to a preliminary two-week low of 15.3 bcfd on Wednesday on signs of a reduction at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd export plant in Louisiana. Analysts noted preliminary data is often changed later in the day.
Gas flows to Cameron slid to a preliminary 10-week low of 1.6 bcfd on Wednesday, down from an average of 2.4 bcfd over the past seven days. Officials at Cameron were not immediately available for comment.
In other LNG news, flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a record high of 1.8 bcfd on Wednesday.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at a 10-week low of around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a five-week low of $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Feb 21 Forecast | Week ended Feb 14 Actual | Year ago Feb 21 | Five-year average Feb 21 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -248 | -196 | -86 | -141 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,853 | 2,101 | 2,401 | 2,078 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -10.8% | -5.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 4.14 | 4.17 | 1.80 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 13.07 | 13.55 | 8.12 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.86 | 14.34 | 8.93 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 277 | 288 | 256 | 344 | 334 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 8 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 9 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 285 | 295 | 259 | 354 | 343 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.0 | 103.8 | 104.0 | 103.2 | 95.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 11.1 | 9.8 | 9.2 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.1 | 113.7 | 113.2 | N/A | 104.0 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | N/A | 5.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 15.9 | 16.0 | 15.6 | 14.0 | 11.3 |
U.S. Commercial | 20.7 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 15.9 |
U.S. Residential | 35.4 | 22.7 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 26.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 34.3 | 31.9 | 27.6 | 30.6 | 30.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 27.0 | 24.8 | 24.4 | 24.5 | 25.1 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 125.9 | 101.5 | 94.2 | 96.0 | 106.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 150.1 | 127.3 | 119.1 | N/A | 125.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 85 | 85 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 83 | 83 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 84 | 85 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Feb 28 | Week ended Feb 21 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 36 | 39 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 20 | 22 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.88 | 3.86 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.58 | 3.65 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.52 | 3.28 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 3.50 | 3.49 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.60 | 3.55 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 4.16 | 4.25 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 4.10 | 3.86 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.85 | 2.26 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.18 | 1.13 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 49.00 | 67.51 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 35.33 | 38.89 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 45.86 | 23.21 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 24.17 | 17.13 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 18.60 | 9.27 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.