There's been a notable change in appetite for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:BCRX) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 12% to US$8.28. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$451m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.43 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals

Following the latest results, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$561.9m in 2025. This would be a sizeable 25% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 85% to US$0.063. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$549.2m and losses of US$0.069 per share in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for this year.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$15.42, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 25% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 43% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 20% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals will grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.