金吾财讯 | 铝业股普遍走高，截至发稿，中国铝业(02600)涨4.64%，中国宏桥(01378)涨3.87%，兴发铝业(00098)涨3.73%。消息面上，国海证券表示，短期来看，下游需求仍在恢复过程中，光伏、汽车等领域预期较好，铝价持续震荡上扬。而氧化铝方面，随着铝土矿进口恢复和氧化铝产能投放，氧化铝供需逐步走向宽松，价格低位震荡，考虑长期氧化铝产能增长，远期价格将维持在较低水平。下游即将进入“金三银四”需求旺季，铝价或有更强势表现，电解铝环节盈利有望持续向上，关注板块投资机会。长期来看，铝行业长期供给增量有限，而需求仍有增长点，行业或将维持高景气，维持铝行业“推荐”评级。星展发研报称，由于需求增长超过供应，铝价上涨势头强劲。2025年铝价预计将上涨7.8%，因为铝的需求增长率为2.6%，而供应增长率为2.0%。铝矿供应紧张将为铝价上涨提供支撑。随着电动汽车、太阳能电池板、机器人和5G应用等新兴领域的发展，铝需求有望稳步增长。另外，中国铝产能接近满负荷运行，新增供应有限，为铝价提供了有力支撑。
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