The United States' pause in providing military aid to Ukraine will not only give Russia an advantage on the battlefield, but also at the negotiating table, said observers. 

A White House official said on Monday (Mar 3) that the US is suspending military aid to Ukraine, and is reviewing the assistance to “ensure that it is contributing to a solution”. 

The move comes days after US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a verbal showdown in the Oval Office. 

DIPLOMATIC RIFT DEEPENS

Trump has repeatedly criticised Zelenskyy for being insufficiently grateful for Washington's backing in the war with Russia. 

Since Russia's invasion three years ago, the US has committed billions of dollars in assistance for Ukraine. It has sent a wide spectrum of weapons, from tanks to defence missiles.

Alexey Muraviev, associate professor of national security and strategic studies at Curtin University, said Ukraine’s issue is that it “doesn't have the upper hand on the battlefield”.

“They're defending. They continue to display enormous resilience. But they are not winning, and that really creates a very delicate situation for the Ukrainians when it comes to negotiations,” he added.

The Russians are unlikely to agree to a ceasefire except on their terms, including establishing control of lands that they claim to be theirs, he told CNA’s Asia Now. 

Last month, the Trump administration said it agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine, after an initial meeting that excluded Kyiv. 

At those talks in Saudi Arabia, Russia hardened its demands, insisting it would not tolerate the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military alliance granting membership for Kyiv.

“In a way, Zelenskyy is on the defensive and (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is going forward, and Trump seems to approve of that and seems to help Putin indirectly,” said Klaus Larres, distinguished professor of history and international affairs at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

BROKERING PEACE

Analysts believe that Trump, in seeking a quick peace deal, is trying to put Ukraine in a position where it will be forced to give in and negotiate. 

“The quickest way of doing that is to hinder Ukraine's ability to continue fighting. And I think that's what Trump has been about virtually since he was elected,” said Graeme Gill, professor emeritus of government and international relations at the University of Sydney.

“The quickest way to bring that peace is to bring the parties to the negotiating table,” he told CNA938. “And one way of doing that, through Ukraine at least, is to cut off support to Ukraine.”

While Ukraine has managed to stockpile munitions, it may feel the impact when the US shuts down intelligence and information sharing, said Curtin University’s Muraviev. 

“Then the Ukrainians won't be able to have the same level of situational awareness of the battlefield as they do now,” he said, adding that Ukraine’s European partners are “no match to what the US brings to the table” when it comes to gathering intelligence.

“That would certainly give the Russians more of an advantage in the short run.”

The pause in aid, which will apply to all military equipment not yet inside Ukraine, will last until Trump determines that the country's leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace, according to media reports.

Earlier on Monday, Trump - who has upended US policy on Ukraine after taking office by adopting a more conciliatory approach towards Moscow - warned that he would "not put up" much longer with Zelenskyy's stance on the war. 

“Zelenskyy and Trump seem to be clearly at loggerheads,” Larres told CNA’s Asia First. 

“What Trump seems to have in mind is to end the war as quickly as possible, possibly within weeks, and he wants to obtain economic advantages from doing so.”

MINERALS DEAL NOT DEAD

Despite the rift between the two leaders, Trump suggested on Monday that a deal to open up Ukraine's rare earth minerals to US investment could still be agreed upon. 

Plans to sign a minerals deal fell through due to the heated Oval Office exchange last Friday. 

The Trump administration views the deal as a way of earning back some of the billions of dollars it has given in financial and military aid.

On whether Zelenskyy would accept Trump’s demands, Muraviev said: “It'll all depend on how long this pause will last. 

“If it's going to be a short period, then it's not going to have a lot of impact on the Ukrainian government, because clearly Zelenskyy is digging in and not willing to move.”

But some observers noted that the deal would mean little if a lasting peace agreement cannot be brokered. 

“No American company is going to invest in Ukraine until they're certain that the war is over and not going to start again,” said Gill. 

“So, the whole minerals issue is really a second order one. You've got to get the war finished first before the minerals can actually come into play at all.”

EUROPEAN SUPPORT

Meanwhile, Europe is trying to offer support for Ukraine while treading cautiously with the US, “because they don't want to antagonise Donald Trump either”, said Larres. 

At a summit in London just two days after the diplomatic bust-up between Trump and Zelenskyy, European leaders rallied around the Ukrainian president and promised to do more to help. 

They have pledged to spend more on security and assemble a coalition to defend any truce.

Muraviev said Zelenskyy is now counting on Europe's support, “without maybe necessarily realising what are the limitations of what Europe can bring to the table”. 

“They cannot obviously fully substitute the US,” he said.

“So if (neither Zelenskyy nor Trump gives in), we will have the battle of egos here - then yes, it would have detrimental effects on Ukraine and would give the Russians advantage.”