The annual results for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:AUPH) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$235m were what the analysts expected, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.04 per share, an impressive 54% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals

Following the latest results, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$258.6m in 2025. This would be a solid 10.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 1,010% to US$0.47. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$274.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.57 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 5.1% to US$10.29, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aurinia Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 10.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 47% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 20% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Aurinia Pharmaceuticals .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.