The yearly results for GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at CA$7.9b, statutory losses exploded to CA$2.11 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for GFL Environmental

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from GFL Environmental's eleven analysts is for revenues of CA$8.43b in 2025. This reflects an okay 7.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with GFL Environmental forecast to report a statutory profit of CA$0.32 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$8.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.44 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$68.65, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values GFL Environmental at CA$86.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$39.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the GFL Environmental's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that GFL Environmental's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 0.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while GFL Environmental's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for GFL Environmental. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$68.65, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on GFL Environmental. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple GFL Environmental analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether GFL Environmental's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.